By NiallO’Dowd

AS we turn into the home stretch in the midterm election, it becomes increasingly clear that the odds of a Democratic House and possibly a Democratic Senate are increasingly shorter.

Indeed, if you venture into the online bookmakers you will find that Paddy Power in Dublin rates a Democratic House as a 2-7 proposition, meaning that you would have to invest seven dollars to win just two, making it a heavy odds on bet. Just six weeks ago those odds were even money, or 1-1.

This has been a nightmare year for Republicans, forced on the defensive by Iraq, the Congressman Mark Foley affair and numerous payola scandals involving members of the party.

There is clearly a Democratic wave building, but the size and intensity of it is still very much unknown. After all, it will crash against the walls of a Congress so gerrymandered that at least 90% of elected representatives in the House can look forward to an easy re-election as they look over the parapet to the wave crashing below.

Both parties are to blame for that, but there is little doubt that at most about 50-60 seats are actually in contention out of the 435 on offer in the House.

We can probably state that without any catastrophic event between now and Election Day we will end up with a Democratic controlled House, with San Francisco’s Nancy Pelosi as speaker.

Obviously from the Irish community perspective, the question will then be in January where the Democrats will go with the immigration issue — if anywhere.

Experts believe it is very likely the Senate, irrespective of who controls it, will vote out a similar immigration bill which passed during the last session based on the measure created by Senators Edward Kennedy and John McCain.

It would obviously face a very different House if the bill landed there after going through the Senate. Current Speaker Denis Hastert and his Republican cronies have done everything to defeat comprehensive immigration reform, apart from a spate of wall building on the border which will likely have the same impact as King Canute did on keeping back the waves.

Pelosi voted against the draconian House immigration bill passed last December, and she has told Irish leaders in San Francisco that she is broadly in favor of the Senate bill that passed this year.

That being the case the outlook is certainly much brighter under the scenario we have sketched out here.

However, we have to realize that Pelosi, if she is elected, will have many pressing priorities to face when she takes office as the new speaker.

Indeed, it has been noticeable that she has not mentioned comprehensive reform as one of her immediate goals. That may well be a tactical decision, as Republicans run a scare campaign against any Democrat who is seen to be in favor of a decent immigration bill.

It will be up to the Irish community and others to pressurize the Democrats into giving immigration reform a major priority in this election. If the Democrats do win handsomely, there is little doubt that a significant increase in the Hispanic vote in their favor will be an important aspect of their victory.

Both Hispanics and Irish lobbies need to focus intently on getting quick action on immigration reform early in the next Congress. Despite all the Republican scaremongering every poll shows a majority of Americans in favor of a comprehensive deal that will both secure the borders and eventually make legal those here undocumented. But making that a reality will be a major task.