Intelligencer

IRA About to Make Statement

The IRA has now completed their consultation process and a statement is imminent from the organization concerning its future role.

Exactly when it will come is still a matter for debate. Sinn Fein’s American coordinator Rita O’Hare will be back in the U.S. on Wednesday, July 13 and has major meetings scheduled in Washington for the rest of the week.

There are tentative plans for Sinn Fein’s Chief Negotiator Martin McGuinness to come to the U.S. in the next week or so, obviously on foot of an historic announcement, but there seems to be no definitive day set.

It may well be that the IRA will pick a very late July date as August 1 is traditionally the beginning of the extended summer vacation period in Ireland. Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern is among those who may well be away for the announcement if it runs any later than that.

How the IRA Will Act

The Irish Times and Daily Ireland newspapers both had similar stories this week indicating that the IRA will retain its structure in the upcoming statement but will adopt a policy of only seeking a united Ireland through peaceful means. That might well cover the request by Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams that the organization find other means to pursue their goal.

Daily Ireland reports, “Chief among the concerns expressed by IRA members at the meetings was the slow pace of change in the North and the virtual collapse of the power-sharing and cross-Border institutions.

“It is believed that members were assured there would be no move on acceptance of the Police Service of Northern Ireland as part of any new deal with the British and the Democratic Unionist Party to reinstate the Executive. There remains deep opposition to the PSNI across the Republican constituency.”

Clearly if the IRA remains intact in some form that would allow the organization to cover any attempts by outsiders to recruit IRA members on the basis that they have gone out of business.

However, it remains unclear if such an approach in the statement would work with leaders of other parties. Already the Labor Party leader Pat Rabbitte has issued a strong statement condemning any effort to keep the IRA alive in any form. Interesting stuff coming from a man whose original party, Sinn Fein the Workers Party, was effectively the political wing of the Official IRA.

We don’t think there was ever a statement by the Official IRA that they were going out of business, not surprising given that they too continued their activities long after their supposed ceasefire.

O’Hare Returns To the U.S.

SINN Fein’s top U.S. official Rita O’Hare will be coming back to the U.S. despite efforts to ban her while the IRA discussions were going on.

She returns to America despite the best efforts of someone in the State Department (the European desk?) to keep her out. As you may remember O’Hare was banned for one visit because she apparently did not fully fill in one of her forms relating to a trip to Florida she took to meet a leading Irish American there.

O’Hare will have stricter reporting requirements on this trip but she will nonetheless be free to go wherever she wishes. It is expected to be a visit involving widespread consultations in both New York and Washington as the timetable ticks down to the IRA announcement.

The O’Hare visit will be a major disappointment to many Sinn Fein opponents who thought that the denial of her visa the last time was a new attempt by the State Department to take on a hostile role when it came to Sinn Fein and the peace process.

There is no question that what they did was a shot across the bow, but it almost certainly had minimal impact where it matters most — on the IRA volunteers making up their minds about their future. Like many such efforts in the past it was probably a counter productive move.

How Will Paisley React?

If the IRA announces it is purely committed to peaceful means, it means that they will also have to dump all their arms. In that respect the new statement could be similar to the March 1962 “Dump Arms” statement, which ended that border campaign.

Somewhat like now, that statement occurred when it had become utterly apparent for some time that the campaign was over anyway.

The IRA takes its own history very seriously, but there are bound to be problems if they keep the organization intact, no matter what their goal. No doubt Ian Paisley and others will point out that at some future date the IRA could decide to get back into the terrorism business.

Of course, that could happen with or without a structured organization. What is certain is that the IRA will first and foremost ensure there is minimum risk of a split from this decision which is the one reality they have fought hardest to avoid.