Kennedy’s Call Critical

Editorial / Periscope - Niall O'Dowd

Kennedy’s Call Critical

August 30, 2007

By NiallO’Dowd

THE Democratic nomination for president in 2008 could come down to the endorsement of Senator Edward Kennedy, the most powerful figure still in the progressive wing of the party. With Senator Hillary Clinton currently enjoying a clear lead in national polls, many pundits have begun believing her nomination is inevitable. To those who think so I have just two words of caution — Howard Dean.

Four years ago as the election neared Dean, who had run a classic outsiders’ race, looked like a sure fire winner, well ahead in the polls everywhere until his spectacular collapse after the Iowa caucuses. Dean lost out to a rejuvenated Senator John Kerry, who had looked dead and buried just weeks before.

No doubt the Clinton campaign are fully aware that overconfidence can kill. Senator John McCain looked well positioned just a few months ago to be the Republican candidate. Now he is gasping for political life.

A key element in the Kerry comeback was the powerful endorsement of Kennedy, who decided his Massachusetts colleague was the best man to defeat Bush.

In addition to personally supporting him that vital last few weeks in Iowa, Kennedy also ensured that Kerry’s staff was shaken up and some of his own key personnel inserted.

The impact was dramatic. Kerry leaped to the front of the pack in Iowa and never looked back. Most would argue had he run a half decent campaign in the fall he, and not George W. Bush, would now be president.

This time around Kennedy is keeping his powder dry, at least as long as his closest friend in the Senate Senator Chris Dodd is involved in the race. Dodd is a major longshot, however, and when the real race begins the pressure on Kennedy to support one of the three frontrunners will intensify.

There is no guarantee he will throw his weight behind Clinton. Friends say he is philosophically more in tune with the red meat message of John Edwards, who is running far to the left of Clinton.

Then there is Barack Obama, who has a powerful fundraising machine, a fresh message and a slew of former Kennedy confidantes, including Tony Lake, who served as national security advisor in the White House under President Bill Clinton.

Lake is Obama’s main advisor on foreign affairs and a key figure in a campaign that will be dominated more by foreign policy issues than any other American campaign in history.

Kennedy, no doubt, feels a powerful emotional tug towards the Obama forces as well, given the historic nature of his presidential run and the family history of advancing the civil rights agenda.

Then there is the obvious bond between Kennedy and the Clintons forged during the White House years, some of it due to the Irish peace process.

It was Kennedy who was the key figure behind Clinton’s decision to grant Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams a visa to come to the U.S. in 1994, without which there would never have been an American dimension to the Irish peace process.

Kennedy provided the vital political cover for the young president to make that step at a time when his own cabinet mostly disagreed with him.

The two men and Senator Clinton have all remained close friends since, though Kennedy failed to convince the senator to vote against the Iraq war.

But when it comes to presidential politics sentiment goes out the window. The Kennedy endorsement will be critical as the days pass and Iowa looms closer.

The nominating process ensures that more liberal members are more likely to vote, so Kennedy’s call will be a critical one for whatever candidate.

A generation and a half after he entered politics, the Massachusetts senator still is playing a key role in the destination of his party’s presidential nomination.

This year in particular, with Republicans looking weakened by the Iraq war and a general sense of malaise, the Democratic candidates know they have a great shot at the White House.

That road may well lead through Hyannis Port or wherever else Senator Kennedy will be in the upcoming weeks and months. Not for the first time Democrats will be awaiting his verdict.

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